Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research, Betam, Prof. Dr. He published the Economic Growth and Forecasts: May 2023 note titled “The Impact of the Earthquake on First Quarter Growth” prepared by Ozan View and Research Assistant Hamza Mutluay.
According to the calculations we made with the GDP leading indicators for February, March and partially announced in the report, the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to the calculations made with seasonal and calendar adjusted data, it is predicted that the GDP will increase by 1 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter.
Strong increase in imports of consumer goods
In the first quarter of 2023, strong increases in consumption goods imports and 27.7 percent in public consumption expenditures are expected compared to the previous quarter, while a decrease of approximately 7 percent in housing loans is foreseen.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, a significant increase in imported consumption and a sharp decrease in housing loans were observed. Increases of 0.6 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, were estimated in the non-durable and durable goods production index.
An increase of 33.2 percent in SCT and 39.1 percent in public consumption expenditures was calculated.
Strong increase in imported investment goods
According to the data adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, 13.2 percent increase in investment goods imports stood out in the first quarter of 2023.
While the retail sector stock level increased by 0.2 percent, public investment expenditures decreased by 20.4 percent.
On an annual basis, the production expectations for the last three months decreased by 5.5 percent and the intermediate goods production index decreased by 6.4 percent. While the increase in investment goods imports was 28.1%, public investment expenditures increased by 97.3 percent.
Strong increase in non-gold imports
In the first quarter of 2023, when the seasonal and calendar adjusted foreign trade figures are considered, a 0.4 percent decrease in exports and an 8.5 percent increase in imports are predicted.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, exports excluding gold increased by 2.6 percent, while total exports decreased by 1.4 percent. While non-gold imports increased by 10.2 percent, an 18.4% increase was calculated in imports when gold was included.