Strong positive surprise in US non-farm payrolls

Non-farm employment and wage increases, which are critical for the monetary policy path in the USA, became clear.

In the US economy, non-farm employment increased by 517,000 in January.

A Bloomberg survey estimated that the US created 188,000 net nonfarm jobs.

The increase in non-farm employment, which was announced as 223 thousand in December, was revised to 260 thousand.

Average hourly earnings, which are critical for the inflation outlook, came in line with expectations. According to the data, average hourly earnings in January increased by 0.3 percent compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, the increase was 4.4 percent. Average hourly earnings were expected to increase by 4.3 percent annually.

In January, the unemployment rate in the country was 3.4 percent, exceeding the expectation of 3.6 percent. under left. The unemployment rate of 3.4 percent was recorded as the lowest unemployment rate since 1969.

ADP data was weak

ADP private sector employment data, which is accepted as the leading indicator in terms of data, pointed to a weak increase in employment.

According to ADP data, private sector employment in the USA increased by 106 thousand in January. The expectation was that the increase would be 180 thousand. The increase, which was announced as 235 thousand in December, was revised to 253 thousand.

The figure was recorded as the lowest increase since the decline seen in January 2021 according to the ADP dataset.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said that the extreme weather conditions seen in the USA in January coincided with the week referenced in employment measurements and the effects of this were seen. Richardson emphasized that the employment trend is strong in the rest of the month.

ADP data pointed out that there was an average of 7.3 percent increase in the salaries of employees who remained in their posts in January. The wage increase of employees who changed their jobs was recorded as 15.4 percent on average.

Top of the data monitored by the Fed

Although the rate of increase in interest rates slowed down, Fed members, signaling that they would continue to increase in the upcoming period, drew attention to the fact that the labor market has remained strong in recent months in the face of the decline in inflation.

Economists stated that the moderate increase in employment and wages accompanied by the softening in inflation supported the soft landing scenario.

Anna Wong, US Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, stated that moderate wage increases could support the rally after the Fed rate decision. However, Wong pointed out that layoffs occurred in the high-wage technology and finance sector, noting that there may be partial moderation in wages rather than generalization.

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