UNCTAD: Global trade recovers but outlook weak

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its global trade update report for June.

In the report, it was pointed out that trade growth in the first quarter of 2023 was positive for both goods and services, and it was stated that world trade in goods and services recovered in both volume and value after two consecutive quarters of decline.

In the report, which stated that in the first three months of the year, goods trade increased by approximately 100 billion dollars, 1.9 percent compared to the last quarter of 2022, it was reported that global service trade increased by 2.8 percent with 50 billion dollars compared to the previous quarter.

In the report, it was emphasized that a slowdown in global trade growth is predicted for the second quarter of this year, and that the outlook for global trade in the second half of 2023 is pessimistic.

In the report, which also includes the developments affecting global trade, the increasing demand for services, trade and transportation costs that support green transformation are listed as positive factors.

Commodity prices and interest rates listed as negative factors

In the report, factors such as war and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, weakening global economy, potential increase in trade restrictive measures, slowing industrial production, inflation, commodity prices and interest rates were also included as negative factors in global trade.

In the report, which pointed out that the growth of trade in goods followed a mixed course among major economies in the last four quarters, significant increases were seen in imports and exports of Brazil, India, the USA and the European Union. and generally negative.

Growth in developing countries reached 14 percent

The report noted that the trade trends in the first quarter of 2023 for major economies are calmer and in most cases negative, but the significant growth in exports of China and India are notable exceptions.

In the report, it was stated that both imports and exports of developing countries increased by 6 percent on an annual basis, and that the annual trade growth for developing countries was approximately 14 percent, excluding East Asian economies.

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