US revises oil price forecast upwards

In the “June 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report” of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the OPEC+ group member countries extended their daily production cuts to the next year in line with the decision taken at the beginning of June and Saudi Arabia announced that an additional 1 million barrels per day would be cut in July. At the end of the year and in the first half of next year, it was stated that the upward pressure on oil prices increased.

In this context, the average barrel price of Brent crude oil for this year was estimated to be $79.54. This figure was $78.65 in the previous report.

The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is predicted to be $74.61 this year. WTI’s barrel price was estimated at $73.62 in the previous report.

Next year, the price of Brent crude oil per barrel is expected to be $83.51, while the price of WTI crude oil is expected to be $78.51 per barrel.

US crude oil production expected to rise

The average daily crude oil production in the USA is expected to be around 12 million 610 thousand barrels this year. Last year, this figure was recorded as approximately 11 million 890 thousand barrels. It is calculated that the production will increase to 12 million 770 thousand barrels in 2024.

The report stated that US crude oil production will reach record levels this year and next year, but the rate of domestic production growth will slow due to rising production costs and companies investing less in new production to increase their dividends.

It is estimated that the global oil supply will be 101 million 370 thousand barrels per day this year and 102 million 690 thousand barrels next year.

In global oil production, an increase is expected this year and next year despite the production cuts of the OPEC+ group, and the said increase is expected to come mostly from non-OPEC countries.

Global oil demand is expected to be 101 million 10 thousand barrels per day this year and 102 million 710 thousand barrels next year. The expected increase in global consumption for the rest of the year and this year is expected to come from non-OECD Asian countries, led by China and India. It is estimated that the consumption of liquid fuels such as gasoline and jet fuel in these countries will reach record levels this year and next year.

EIA Manager Joe DeCarolis, whose views are included in the report, underlined that the record production increase in petroleum products reflects the expectation of increase in demand, and stated that supply and demand-side uncertainties continue in the markets.

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